Introduction
China is facing a deepening population crisis. The government is trying a controversial new tactic. Officials have increased the tax on condoms. This move is part of a desperate push to raise the national birth rate. However, many young couples are choosing to remain child-free. The policy is struggling to change their minds.
China’s population has now shrunk for three consecutive years. This is a historic and worrying trend for the world’s second-largest economy. Demographers project a shocking future. The population could fall from 1.4 billion today to just 633 million by the year 2100. This decline threatens economic growth, social stability, and global influence. The condom tax is the latest in a series of policies aimed at reversing this slide.
Understanding China’s Population Emergency
China is officially in a demographic decline. The number of newborns hit another record low in 2024. Deaths now outnumber births every year. This shift started after decades of the strict one-child policy. That policy successfully slowed population growth. But it also created a severe imbalance. China now has too many older retirees and not enough young workers. This shrinking workforce must support a growing number of elderly citizens. The economic and social pressure is immense.
The Condom Tax: A Symbolic Policy Move
The government raised the consumption tax on condoms from 10% to 13%. This decision sparked immediate debate at home and abroad. Officials framed it as a measure to encourage family planning in a new direction. The goal is to make contraception slightly more expensive. The hope is that this will lead to fewer purchases and, theoretically, more births. Critics call the move intrusive and ineffective. They argue it ignores the real reasons young people are avoiding parenthood.
Why Young Chinese Couples Are Saying No to Children
Economic pressures are the top reason couples delay or reject having children. The cost of housing, education, and healthcare in major cities is extraordinarily high. Many young adults face long work hours and job insecurity. They feel they cannot provide a stable life for a child. Social attitudes are also shifting dramatically. More people, especially women, value personal freedom and career ambition. The traditional pressure to have a child to continue the family line is weakening among urban youth.
A History of Failed Pronatalist Policies
The condom tax follows other failed government efforts. China ended the one-child policy in 2016. It replaced it with a two-child and then a three-child policy. The government offered cash subsidies, longer maternity leave, and tax benefits for families. None of these measures produced a sustained increase in births. Young people view these incentives as insufficient. The policies do not address the root causes of their reluctance. The condom tax may be seen as another superficial solution.
The Staggering Long-Term Projections
The potential scale of population collapse is difficult to overstate. A drop to 633 million people by 2100 would reshape China completely. The country would lose its status as the world’s most populous nation. India has already claimed that title. An older, smaller population means less innovation and consumer spending. The pension and healthcare systems could collapse under the strain. China’s global economic and military power would likely diminish over the long term.
What Comes Next in China’s Demographic Struggle?
The condom tax highlights the government’s growing desperation. It shows a willingness to use blunt policy tools on personal decisions. Most experts believe such measures will fail without deeper change. The government must make life more affordable for young families. It needs to reform the punishing work culture. It must build a stronger social safety net. Until then, the birth rate will likely remain low. China’s great population decline appears set to continue.
