While the Vatican readies for Pope Francis’s unprecedented funeral, here’s how things play out next in the historic ritual to choose his replacement:
1. The Funeral (Saturday, April 22)
Location: St. Peter’s Square (anticipated 2M+ attendees, 100+ world leaders)
Unique Feature: First papal funeral with holographic viewing by livestream in 30 global cathedrals
Burial: Unadorned cypress wood coffin in Vatican crypts close to St. Peter’s tomb
2. The Novemdiales (9 Days of Mourning)
Daily Rites: Cardinals celebrate Masses commenting on various aspects of Francis’s legacy
Key Date: Day 5 – Publication of Francis’s sealed testament (presumably covering Church reforms)
Security Lockdown: Sistine Chapel closed to electronic sweeps for surveillance
3. The Conclave (Anticipated April 30-May 5)
Electors: 120 cardinal-voters maximum (under age 80) – presently 117 eligible
Game Changer: Francis’s 2022 reforms enable virtual discussion before voting (though ballots are still physical)
Dark Horses: Look for Cardinal Tagle (Philippines) and Cardinal Czerny (Canada)
4. The Voting Ritual
Ballot Burning: Chemical additives turn smoke black (no pope) or white (elected)
Threshold: 2/3 majority necessary (77 votes) – reduces to 50%+1 after 12 deadlocked ballots
The Moment: Chosen pope transforms into white cassette in “Room of Tears”
5. The New Reality
First Test: Instantaneous resolutions on Francis’s unresolved agenda (female deacons? LGBT outreach?)
Name Signs: “John Paul III” = traditionalist; “Francis II” = continuity of reform
International Consequence: 1.3B Catholics expect guidance on ethics of AI, climate emergency, war zones
Pro Tip: The Vatican rule change in 2023 that allows cardinals to get advisors’ input before they vote – the most prep’d conclave ever.
