Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ramping up his repression of political rivals and dissent as Western powers look away, analysts propose. With Europe eager to retain Turkey’s help in NATO action against Russian advances in Ukraine, Erdogan seems to be taking advantage of their hesitancy to condemn his hardening hold on power. Recent arrests of opposition leaders and the mass detention of activists have prompted international alarm, but Western reaction is subdued.
Analysts contend that Turkey’s strategic position as a NATO ally and its dominance of critical geopolitical pathways, including the Bosporus Strait, are too important for the West to risk losing. European powers, especially Germany and France, are reportedly lobbying Ankara to maintain its role in stabilizing Ukraine and controlling migration channels. It is for this reason that Turkey’s human rights abuses and democratic regression have been relegated to the sidelines in diplomatic negotiations.
Erdogan’s government has also defended its most recent actions as a response to threats to national security, generally correlating crackdowns with plots to overthrow the government or terrorist ties. But opposition parties and human rights groups charge these measures are politically driven, designed to undermine democratic institutions in time for the next electoral period. The recent detention of aides of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, combined with wholesale detentions, has prompted accusations of authoritarian excess.
In spite of these reservations, the West’s reluctance to take on Erdogan head-on indicates a broader geopolitics balancing act. While there are public statements of concern from some European leaders, concrete measures like sanctions or diplomatic pressure are not likely. Experts caution that this policy may encourage Erdogan further, prompting more forceful crackdowns on opposition voices ahead of Turkey’s next presidential election.
